Can The Democrats Retake The House Next Year?

Steve Israel's talking point is "problem solvers." He repeats it like a mantra. But there's something else interesting that he said in his interview with USA Today, in response to a question about what it means that the DCCC spent so lavishly in South Carolina a few weeks ago, only to lose-- and by a wide margin-- to one of the most flawed Republican candidates ever, Mark Sanford. Israel pointed out the SC-01 "is one of the 100 most Republican districts in the country (which isn't exactly true. The PVI is R+11 and it's ranked the 118th most Republican): "I made a decision that we're not going to give up on any district and we're not going to give up on any candidate... It would have been easy for me to walk away, but we'll fight wherever we have a chance." Almost sounds less reptilian... and more like Churchill.

As we mentioned before a few times, last year Israel very much did walk away from Jim Graves in his race against Michele Bachmann. After putting him on the Red to Blue list, Israel decided not to spend any money at all in the district. Bachmann spent $11,946,232 to Graves' $2,279,384 but he came a lot closer to beating her than many of Israel's handpicked candidates where the DCCC spent millions. The 4,197 votes by which Bachmann beat Graves would certainly have been made up had the DCCC spent the kind of money in MN-06 that they spent bolstering losing candidates like Blue Dog Gary McDowell (1,282,979), Blue Dog Brendan Mullen ($483,721), New Dem Julian Schreibman ($2,037,612), Joe Oceguera ($2,649,541) or Pat Kreitlow ($2,069,595) to name a few.

And Graves wasn't the only viable Democratic candidate Israel gave the cold shoulder-- and a cold shoulder often comes with an explicit message to big donors to NOT give contributions. Had Israel been even vaguely competent last go-round, among the Republicans who wouldn't be serving in Congress this session are right-wingers in MUCH bluer districts than Bachmann's. These are Republicans who could have been defeated had Steve Israel just done his job. None comes from an R+11 district like SC-01. In fact none comes from a district above R+4-- and all are powerful GOP House leaders who were actively protected by Steve Israel:

• Darrell Issa (CA)
• John Mica (FL)
• Joe Pitts (PA)
• Scott Garrett (NJ)
• Paul Ryan (WI)
• Buck McKeon (CA)
• Frank Wolf (VA)
• Mike Rogers (MI)
• John Kline (MN)
• Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
• Fred Upton (MI)
• Peter King (NY)

And this dozen only includes committee chairs and powerful Members that Israel put off the table, despite their political vulnerabilities and despite, in some cases, excellent Democratic candidates. The good news is that Israel may be lightening up on his protection racket a little and allowing DCCC staffers some leeway in going after vulnerable big shot Republicans. As you can see in the video above, he's very enthusiastic about Jim Graves this time around. There are reasons to believe he is equally enthusiastic about targeting Kline, McKeon and Garrett... at least a small step in the right direction.

There's a new national poll out that shows registered voters prefer to have a Democrat win their district than a Republican. And the margin is significant-- 48% of respondents picked the generic Democrat and 40% picked the generic Republican. But voters don't usually chose between generic candidates. That's why recruitment this year will determine what happens in November 2014.

One of the easiest districts for a Democrat to win would be FL-27, the seat now held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. But there is no recruitment; there is anti-recruitment. DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has made it abundantly clear to Florida Democrats that she will not tolerate anyone credible running against Ileana, who, like her, is owned by the sugar baron Fanjul brothers. Last year Obama's 7 point margin in FL-27 was one of the highest margins of victory in any district held by a Republican Member of Congress. But Wasserman Schultz had the DCCC make sure there would be no viable candidate. The "Democrat" who ran, Manny Yevancey, still hasn't filed an FEC financial disclosure report, which means he raised and spent less than $5,000. His petitions-- which were commercially collected by a firm in Tampa that was paid by "someone else"-- is almost totally signed by folks in Tampa, not in Miami, Coral Gables, Hialeah, Miami Springs, South Miami, Westchester or anywhere else in Ros-Lehtinen's district. The total signatures on his petitions from Miami-Dade- 12. The total from Tampa- 1,147. And the other counties with significant petition numbers were also on the other side of the state, Hillsborough with 656 and Pasco with 502. Very convenient for Wasserman Schultz and Ros-Lehtinen to have a candidate with no income, no roots and no chance-- and old dirty trick that anti-democracy hacks employee.

That all said, there were still 84,899 (37%) voters willing to cast their ballots against Ros-Lehtinen and for an unknown "Democrat" who didn't campaign. Imagine if Steve Israel had ignored Wasserman Schultz' demand that Ros-Lehtinen's seat be off limits and had instead recruited a good candidate and gone after her. So far this year, Wasserman Schultz is guarding the process like a mad dog again and despite several DCCC staffers who would like to target Ros-Lehtinen, there is no movement whatsoever on recruiting a Democrat with a reasonable chance to win. There is no way for the DCCC to win back the House with this kind of leadership. Israel and Wasserman Schultz are the worst examples of why grassroots Democrats hate Inside-the-Beltway Democrats and why so many refuse to even turn up at the polls on election day. When Nancy Pelosi re-appointed Steve Israel to chair the DCCC again this year, she sealed the fate of her party to be in the minority again for the 114th Congress.

Read More

Ileana vs Beyoncé-- Is Debbie Wasserman Schultz The Dark Presence Behind The Curtain?

The Florida Republican Party moved to shore up Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's shaky House seat by giving some strongly Democratic areas-- like the Key West-- to much disliked David Rivera in FL-26. Rivera, plagued with a tough district and an unending series of corruption scandals, was promptly defeated for reelection. Ileana survived in a district (FL-27) that has more of Miami's Cuban neighborhoods, including Little Havana, without many African-American neighborhoods, just over her district line. In November, Obama won FL-26 and FL-27 with identical percentages against Romney, 53.1-46.4%. The increase in Ros-Lehtinen's district from 2008 was the biggest increase for Obama in any Republican-held district in America. Obama went from 48.6 in 2008 to 53.1 last year, a number that would stop any Republican in their tracks when contemplating 2014.

But Ileana Ros-Lehtinen isn't "any Republican." She is very close with Florida Democratic political boss and DNC Chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz. who has publicly knee-capped Democrats in the past for daring to oppose her pal Ileana. Is it happening again? You bet it is. FL-27 is the only one of the 5 most Democratic-leaning Republican-held districts that Wasserman Schultz-ally Steve Israel has already taken off the table. Gary Miller (CA-31, David Valadao (CA-21, and Jon Runyan (NJ-03), for example, have almost an identical political profile to FL-27 and all are top priority targets, while Ileana... Ileana who? Oh that Ileana. Can you talk with that about Debbie?

Only two districts in the whole country voted for McCain in 2008 and switched to Obama in 2012, NY-11 (Michael Grimm) and FL-27. Grimm, as he should be, is a MAJOR target of the DCCC's this year. FL-27... talk with Debbie. The last Democrat to seriously challenge Ileana was Annette Taddeo in 2008. Wasserman Schultz taught her a lesson she'll never forget. Nor, apparently, will many other Florida Democrats. Here's one of the most vulnerable seats in America-- certainly the most vulnerable seat in Florida, and no one seems interested in running.

Last year, the DCCC ignored FL-27 entirely. The Democrats ran a "mystery meat candidate," Manny Yevancey, who picked up 37% of the vote to Ileana's 60%. He didn't run a campaign and was just a nomination place-holder to make sure no one who would run a campaign would have the chance to do so. Ros Lehtinen raised $2,146,246 and spent $1,190,873 on the race. Yevancey filed no FEC reports, which means he raised less than $5,000-- maybe less than $5. Many suspect he was nothing more than a Debbie Wasserman Schultz brainstorm.

I wonder if Wasserman Schultz will figure out how to get her crazy little right-wing amiga out of trouble with her attack last week on savvy, wealthy African-American celebrities Beyoncé and Jay-Z. See, if Beyoncé and Jay-Z chose to, they can fight back and give Ileana-- Wasserman Schultz or no Wasserman Schultz-- a real run for her money.

Shawn Carter could have been any American visitor strolling through the streets of a Caribbean town, dressed in standard-issue tourist fare of blue T-shirt and shorts, fedora on head and fat cigar in mouth. His wife, Mrs Carter, as she likes to be addressed, did that other classic tourist thing: she slung a large and ostentatiously expensive camera around her neck.

Despite what they presumably thought was their clever tourist disguise, the Carters caused quite a splash when they came to town last week, so much so that local police had to be called out to keep the adoring crowds at bay. As the blogger of the Cuban government, Yohandry Fontana, put it: "Beyoncé takes Havana by storm."

It was partly who the visitors were: the undisputed First Couple of popular music. He a hip-hop star turned impresario and now sports agent, she about to embark on a world tour of The Mrs Carter Show.

The kerfuffle was also a product of the destination Beyoncé and Jay-Z selected for a short break to celebrate their fifth wedding anniversary. Havana is not quite as accustomed to dealing with mega-celebrity as, say, Beverly Hills or Monte Carlo.

It also happens to still be subject to a trade embargo imposed by the US government that has lasted substantially longer than the Bey-Jay marriage. Ten times as long in fact, being now in its 53nd year.

The embargo technically prohibits all US tourism to the island, which is inconvenient for Beyoncé and Jay-Z because as a result of the unexpected attention their visit attracted, the inevitable inquisition has followed. Two Republican representatives for south Florida, whose constituents include many enduringly embittered Cuban exiles, have raised the issue of the Carters' visit with the Obama administration, denouncing it as having provided sustenance to the "murderous" Castro regime.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart have sent a joint letter to the Treasury Department official responsible for policing the embargo to demand to be told who approved the Carters' travel and for what purpose. The letter points out that "tourist activities" are covered by the ban and complains that the trip was used by the Castro regime for propaganda purposes.

"The restrictions on tourism travel are common-sense measures meant to prevent US dollars from supporting a murderous regime that opposes US security interests at every turn and which ruthlessly suppresses the most basic liberties of speech, assembly and belief," the politicians write.

To add to the heat, the anti-Castro lobby group Cuba Democracy Advocates, based in Washington, accused the couple of being "extremely insensitive." "There are women getting beaten on a daily basis, people are fighting for their freedom," the group's director Mauricio Claver-Carone told celebrity news website TMZ.

The congressmembers' letter doesn't say it overtly, but there is an implicit accusatory tone to their complaint that suggests complicity between the Carters and the Obama administration. The music stars are close to Barack and Michelle Obama-- Jay-Z was an opening act for the president at several of his campaign election last year, and Beyoncé famously lip-synched the national anthem at his second inauguration.

Obama has also loosened in recent years the noose tied around Cuba's neck under the trade embargo. Under the revised terms, Americans can visit the island, though trips are still restricted to academic, religious or cultural exchanges in which participants must have a "full-time schedule of educational exchange activities that will result in meaningful interaction between the travelers and individuals in Cuba."

By that standard, how does the Carter visit hold up? There was certainly a cultural aspect to it. There was that cigar, for starters, and the typical Cuban creole food-- fish, chicken, black beans and rice-- they ate at the renowned paladar, La Guarida. You don't get that quality of island cooking every day in Brooklyn, the couple's more familiar stomping ground.

You could also put into the "cultural" category the stroll through Old Havana, and the time the couple spent on Thursday night at El Gato Tuerto, a legendary Havana nightclub, followed by the Casa de la Musica where according to Reuters they danced to salsa until dawn.

As for spending one-on-one time with Cuban individuals, that is not so clear. The blogger Fontana said that Beyoncé had been booked to have lunch with "important figures of Cuban culture," but the only certain interaction was with her mother, Tina, and Jay-Z's mother, Gloria Carter, who tagged along for the ride.

All in all, bearing in mind the Rottweiler-like tenacity of the Cuban exile community, this wrangle has the potential to run for some time.

Over 50,000 American tourists visit Cuba "illegally" every year. But Ileana and the more clownish of the Diaz-Balart sons feel that because these two are African-American celebrities, associated with Obama, there's some hay to be made in singling them out. If only the DCCC had a candidate running who Beyoncé, Jay-Z, their friends and fans could contribute to...



UPDATE: Ties That Bind-- Debbie And Ileana, The Sugar Queens

The Fanjul brothers aren't especially partisan in their political giving. They just want whores from whichever party and although they've always found a more natural affinity inside the GOP, they've funded Debbie Wasserman Schultz's rise to the top of the Democratic Party, where they hope to see her Speaker one day soon. You're probably not aware-- and to be honest, I doubt Zionist Debbie is either but Don Black is the founder and owner of Stormfront, the leading neo-Nazi website in America, with over 10 million posts. Right-wing fanatics are allowed to get married, of course, and Don's wife, Chloe Black, works for Jose ("Pepe") Fanjul, of the Fanjul sugar empire. According to the spring newsletter of the Southern Poverty Law Center, when the Palm Beach Post reported this, Chloe said "I am not involved in the Web site and do not agree with extremist or racially prejudiced views." And I know for certain that Debbie doesn't either. I'm less certain about some of the Republicans whose seats she protects more tenaciously than Democratic seats.

Read More