The Perfect District For The DCCC-- MI-06-- Has Been Taken Off The Table By Steve Israel

Fred Upton is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. But he's considered safe by the Beltway Establishment, with another nice free reelection pass signed by his old crony from the Center Aisle Caucus, Steve Israel. The Center Aisle Caucus alumni don't try to defeat each other. Since Pelosi made the colossal mistake of appointing Israel chair of the DCCC, the corrupt, conservative Long Island Democrat has protected some of the most obvious seats needed for a Democratic takeover of Congress. Southwestern Michigan's 6th district is one of the most obvious.

In 2008 Obama smash McCain 53-45% in the district, easily Obama's best showing in any of the 9 Michigan GOP-held districts. Even a remotely competent DCCC chair-- or one that was being properly supervised-- would have targeted MI-06 in 2010 and 2012. In 2008, while Obama was stacking up a substantial lead in the district, the DCCC ignored Kalamazoo City Commissioner Don Cooney, the Democratic nominee. He spent $84,883 against Upton's $1,527,587 and Upton beat him 59-39%. Two years later, the DCCC was perfectly content to see him as the party's candidate again-- and ignore him again. In 2010 Upton spent even more money-- $2,083,790-- and Cooney only managed $61,614 and scored a dismal 34%.

Steve Israel took over as DCCC chair for the next cycle and he didn't do anything about recruiting but, fortuitously, ended up with an excellent candidate in Mike O'Brien. Upton was worried and more than doubled his spend-- $4,724,798-- but with no help whatsoever from the DCCC, O'Brien only managed to raise $293,987. He held Upton down to a 54-43% win and tied him in Kalamazoo County, the district's biggest county.

This is a district where the DCCC should be recruiting. Are they? I don't think so. Israel doesn't recruit against his fraternity brothers. There's a very qualified political science professor from Western Michigan University who is backed by local Democrats, Paul Clements who is running, but the DCCC is studiously ignoring his race, the same way they ignored O'Brien and Coons in the last three races. If Pelosi was paying attention, this district alone would have her kicking Israel's ass out of the DCCC chair. This is district has a PVI of R+1, a MUCH better bet than most of the districts Israel has decided to stake the 2014 congressional battle in. And voters there are sick of the way Upton, formerly a mainstream conservative, has been dragged further and further right by the racists and teabaggers who control the House Republican Caucus. His overall career-long ProgressivePunch score is a respectable-- for a Republican-- 12.38. But for 2013 it's a shocking 1.67... pure Tea Party territory. His constituents now see Upton as a political coward.

Paul Clements teaching about international development administration but when he spoke with me on the phone yesterday, he mostly talked about how there can be no democracy-- here or anywhere else-- without economic justice. BINGO! He also wanted to talk about green energy alternatives and how that could make life better for people in western Michigan-- a topic that puts him at odds with Upton, a dedicated shill for Big Oil and Gas. (Upton has accepted $517,250 in legalistic bribes from Big Oil and their payoffs have accelerated since Boehner named him chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. In his "heart" he may agree with Paul Clements about climate change-- but not in his voting record. Clements:

Climate change is the greatest threat to Michigan and to the world in the 21st century. We need to keep global warming under two degrees Celsius, but this takes a strong international agreement limiting greenhouse gas emissions in each country. Such an agreement can only be reached with American leadership.

Recently Michigan has seen failures of apple and cherry crops, Lake Michigan at historic lows, some of the hottest and driest summers in our history, and increased flooding from stronger storms and heavier rainfall. These and other influences from climate change are likely to get worse. With runaway climate change we could lose half our species of plants, trees, animals and birds. West Michigan could have a climate similar to West Texas by the end of the century, with summers seven degrees Fahrenheit hotter than today. But around the world it would be even more disastrous. Runaway climate change is likely to cause droughts and floods that drive millions from their homes, collapsing governments, and wars over water and other resources.

The technology exists to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius. Southwest Michigan must lead in manufacturing based on this technology. America must take the lead to negotiate an international agreement, address the harms from climate change, and develop the technologies for a clean energy future.

...In America and around the world we are “mining” natural resources such as water supplies, fisheries, and forests. We are withdrawing more each year than nature regenerates. Also, polluters and others who harm the environment usually do not pay the cost of their pollution.

We should move toward full cost accounting, taxing polluters for environmental harms. For example, coal-based power plants should be taxed for the health effects from their pollution, and nuclear energy and natural gas companies should be held liable for accidents and other harms they may cause.

Michigan is blessed with great lakes, forests, rivers and wildlife. It is our responsibility to sustain these blessings for future generations.

Please consider joining me in giving Paul a hand in his uphill-- but very winnable-- battle against Fred Upton.

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DCCC-- No Shame Whatsoever In Exploiting Women

A good case can be made-- should be made-- that conservatives are waging a relentless war against American women and that it has to be stopped by voters at the polls by defeating the Republican Party. The GOP anti-women jihad is out of control in every state where they've seized power and in the U.S. House of Representatives. But the DCCC isn't the organization to make the point, not if anyone is expected to believe it. Here's the e-mail the DCCC sent out to tens of thousands of Democrats this week:

Last night, Republicans rammed through an extreme and unconstitutional bill that bans abortions after 20 weeks.

Republicans continue to bend to the will of their radical, anti-women, right-wing base. We can’t let their lack of backbone translate into a country where women are systematically denied basic rights.

Don’t let Republicans take us back to the 1950s. Join our campaign to defeat Tea Party extremists today.

Because of the great showing last night, we’ve decided to match all donations through the end of the month.

Click here to donate $3, unlock our matching program, and double your impact >>

So far, 8,259 supporters have donated to our Women's Health Rapid Response Fund since we learned of the radical Republican plan last week. That's a good start, but we can't sit back.

Our midyear fundraising deadline is right around the corner, and we need to reach 10,000 donations for the Rapid Response fund to fight back against this reenergized Tea Party base. Will you chip in to help us fight back?

The DCCC was bragging in the Beltway trade papers this week that it had raked in $6.1 million in May, bringing their total for 2013 to $34.1 million. They emphasized that the monthly haul is $700,000 more than the party raised in April and brings the DCCC’s cash on hand to $11 million. What do they do with all that money? Well, of course, as we've explained before, first comes the rake-offs and the nest-feathering. OK, and after that? Do they run campaigns against the misogynistic Republicans setting GOP policy? Oh... never. Last cycle Steve Israel, the DCCC's inept and incompetent chairman, took Republican party leaders like Boehner and Cantor and committee chairs like Paul Ryan, Buck McKeon, John Mica, John Kline, Fred Upton, Darrell Issa, Dave Camp, Mike Rogers, etc absolutely off the table. There are rumors that Israel is rethinking that disastrous policy after being pressured by angry House members and angrier donors. We'll see. But whatever happens, the bulk of the DCCC haul goes to bolster what they call their Frontline candidates-- incumbents who are often so unpopular with Democrats-- generally because they vote with Boehner and Cantor on core issues-- that they can't expect much support from the grassroots.

This year for example, a hefty portion of the cash that donors give the DCCC-- including money raised in the above appeal-- will go to help reelect anti-Choice fanatics Mike McIntyre (Blue Dog/New Dem-NC) and Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT) who actually voted with the Republicans on the very bill the DCCC is whining about. Is that the height of hypocrisy? "Give us money because Republicans voted to kill Choice so we can reelect these two Democrats who also voted to kill Choice." No shame... none whatsoever.

Who remembers Faith No More? What would you give to see Rahm Emanuel, Steve Israel, guitarist Joe Crowley, Steny Hoyer and Debbie Wasserman Schultz getting up on stage and performing the song?




UPDATE From The DCCC

More spam from the DCCC, this time from Executive Director Kelly Ward: "As of 9am, we are $830,000 short of what we need to take on Boehner, Cantor, and the Tea Party Republicans.

"Right now, Republicans are bowing to the Tea Party by passing the most radical anti-choice bill in decades and voting to sabotage Obamacare. They have the power to make the next couple years the least productive in Congressional history.

"The only chance we have to prevent the Tea Party agenda is by calling out their lies, loud and clear, across the country. We need you with us..."

Send money, send money, send money... and no word about the 6 Democrats who voted with the Republicans, let alone the two Dems the DCCC will use the money to help reelection-- you know, the two anti-Choice fanatics who are guilty of the exact crime the DCCC is citing as evidence that you need to contribute to them. If you want to help elect committed PRO-Choice Democrats who will actually fight back against the Republicans-- unlike the DCCC-- then you can do that right here.

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Reactionary New Dems Help GOP Pass A Fatally Flawed National Defense Authorization Act

On Friday, the House passed Buck McKeon's tragically flawed National Defense Authorization Act, 315-108. All but 18 Republicans voted YES. The Democratic minority was much more split. Hoyer and Steve Israel led 103 of the more corrupt and conservative Democrats over to the Republican side of the aisle, while Pelosi, Clyburn and Becerra led a contingent of 90 more progressive Democrats against it, folks like Alan Grayson, Barbara Lee, Raul Grijalva, Keith Ellison, John Conyers, Mark Pocan, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky. As always, uber-corrupt New Dem Colleen Hanabusa, who takes immense bribes from the Military Industrial Complex and is currently running against progressive incumbent Senator Brian Schatz, voted with the Republicans.

Before the vote came down, every single Democrat plus two Republicans rallied around a motion to recommit by Tammy Duckworth and Jackie Speier that would give the victim of sexual abuse in the military the power to choose whether to allow the Office of Chief Prosecutor to make the binding decision on whether a case goes to trial, or to allow the commander to proceed with the case. The DCCC was on the case immediately: "Moments ago," they told Santa Clarita media outlets, "Congressman Buck McKeon doubled down on House Republicans’ War on Women when he voted against a measure to empower victims of military sexual assault to seek justice... 'McKeon just proved that he has learned nothing from the backlash this week over the House Republicans’ war on women,' said Emily Bittner of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. 'Instead, Congressman McKeon just turned a blind eye to military sexual assault victims, and it is shameful that he would oppose giving these victims more options for justice.'"

Another amendment that failed (174-249) was the one offered by Adam Smith, Jim Moran and Jerry Nadler to shut down the Guantanamo gulag. This is what Nadler had to say on the floor of the House during the debate:

“This amendment will remove the existing limitations on transfers, strike the current requests for construction at GTMO, and end funding for the detention facility on December 31, 2014.

“The time to close Guantanamo is NOW! It is a stain on our national honor.

“We are holding 166 people in GTMO, 86 of whom have been cleared for release. That is to say that they have been found guilty of nothing, and judged not to pose any danger. There is no reason and no right for us to hold them further.

“Now, Mr. Speaker, I wonder which of our colleagues doesn’t believe in the American system of justice. I wonder which one of us does not trust our own American courts. I wonder who among us does NOT believe in the Bill of Rights. Who does not believe in the right to counsel, or that people should be presumed innocent until proven guilty. What we have in GTMO is a system that is an affront to those beliefs and to America.

“In the last decade, we have begun to let go of our freedoms bit by bit, with each new Executive order, each new court decision, and yes, each new act of Congress. We have begun giving away our rights to privacy, our right to our day in court when the government harms us, and, with this legislation, we are continuing down the path of destroying the right to be free from imprisonment without due process of law.

“I want to commend the gentleman from Washington and the gentleman from Virginia for fighting to close the detention facility at Guantanamo. The language in this bill without our amendment prohibits moving any detainees into the United States and guarantees that we will continue holding people indefinitely; people who are not necessarily terrorists, who we only suspect to be terrorists, who have not had a day in court to prove that they are or are not terrorists, we will continue holding them indefinitely without charge-- contrary to every tradition this country stands for, contrary to due process and civil rights.

“Because of this momentous challenge to the founding principles of the United States-- that no person may be deprived of liberty without due process of law, and certainly not indefinitely without due process of law-- we must close the detention facility at GTMO now in order to restore our national honor. They will have no additional constitutional rights; the Supreme Court ruled that they have the same constitutional rights in Guantanamo as they do here. We must close this facility, restore our national honor, and support this amendment.

Only two libertarian-leaning Republicans, Justin Amash (MI) and Walter Jones (NC), joined all but 21 Democrats who voted to close it down. The 21 Democrats who joined the Republicans in defeating the amendment were mostly the same right-wing shitheads who always vote with the Republicans and who are bolstered by the DCCC:

• Ron Barber (New Dem-AZ)
• John Barrow (New Dem-GA)
• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)
• Bill Foster (New Dem-IL)
• Pete Gallego (Blue Dog-TX)
• Joe Garcia (New Dem-FL)
• Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ)
• Dan Lipinksi (IL)
• Dan Maffei (New Dem-NY)
• Sean Patrick Maloney (New Dem-NY)
• Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT)
• Mike McIntyre (New Dem-NC)
• Patrick Murphy (New Dem-FL)
• Bill Owens (New Dem-NY)
• Scott Peters (New Dem-CA)
• Nick Rahall (WV)
• Raul Ruiz (CA)
• Loretta Sanchez (Blue Dog-CA)
• Brad Schneider (New Dem-IL)
• Kyrsten Sinema (New Dem-AZ)
• Filemon Vela (New Dem-TX)

Of the 21 bad Democrats voting to keep Guantanamo open, 14-- the bolded names-- are on the DCCC Frontline List, representing the characters the DCCC funnels nearly all their contributions to. In other words, contribute to the DCCC and you are contributing to conservatives who vote with the Republican to further their reactionary agenda.

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Does The DCCC Actually Care About Immigration Policy?

I was invited to the White House yesterday for a briefing. I passed on the hassle and the opportunity. I suppose I would have heard President Obama reiterating his strong support for commonsense reform legislation to fix our broken immigration system, and the economic and national security benefits that reform will deliver. Tom Donohue of the US Chamber of Commerce, always pumping for cheap labor, was there-- as were labor leaders Mary Kay Henry and Richard Trumka. The President also invited two DREAMers, Gabriela Pacheco and Tolu Olubunmi. Later in the day, despite opposition from ugly little Texas fascist Ted Cruz and the KKK's Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III (R-AL), the Senate stopped the GOP filibuster against the comprehensive immigration bill 82-15. Meanwhile, Boehner was even heard muttering that the House might pass it with mostly Democratic support in the House and just a few Republican votes there. “It’s not about what I want," said a Speaker clearly caught between a rock and a very, very hard place. "It’s about what the House wants…we’re gonna let the House work its will.” Forget the Hastert rule... again.

The old video at the top of the page-- and from the top of the current DCCC website geared towards Spanish-speaking voters is dramatically out of date and hints at how "important" to DCCC Chair Steve Israel (D-Princesses: Long Island) Hispanic voters are-- i.e., not at all. Israel takes them for granted and expects they'll vote for Democrats because the Republicans are so absolutely horrible. And the Republicans are horrible. As we saw last week, Republicans sent Hispanic voters a signal by voting overwhelmingly to deport DREAMers. Luckily Boehner and Issa weren't waiting outside the Rose Garden yesterday with the House Seargant-at-arms to arrest Gabriela Pacheco and Tolu Olubunmi. Only 6 Republicans voted against the bigoted Steve King Amendment that demanded DREAMers be deported. And only three Democrats voted for it (while 195 Democrats opposed it).




So the DCCC response, predictably, has been to take out Spanish-language ads against some of the Republican miscreants, vulnerable Republicans in swing districts. Mike Coffman (CO), Blake Farenthold (TX), John Kline (MN), Joe Heck (NV), Buck McKeon (CA), Gary Miller (CA), Erik Paulsen (MN), Steve Pearce (NM), and Frank Wolf (VA) were the targets.

"The Republican party insists that they have changed, but once again, House Republicans like Gary Miller have betrayed our community, rejecting President Obama’s executive order that ended the deportation of DREAM Act-eligible young people," the ad's narrator says in the version targeting Miller. "What’s more, Congressman Miller wants to restart the deportations of 800,000 young people who grew up in this country, worked hard, and are just looking for their chance to achieve the American Dream. Now, instead of celebrating the first anniversary of the deferred action program, our young DREAMers again face an uncertain future."

Decent targeting and a decent and effective ad. There is a problem with the DCCC delivering it though. Any money the DCCC raises through these efforts will be used, in part, to bolster their Frontline program. The Frontline program is the top priority for the DCCC. It is all about rescuing Democratic incumbents who look like they could lose their seats for one reason or another. And two of the most likely Democrats in this loser category are reactionary Blue Dogs/New Dems John Barrow (GA) and Mike McIntyre (NC). Both crossed the aisle and voted with the Republicans to deport the DREAMers. A case study in hypocrisy? Is this what Nancy Pelosi was talking about when, on reappointing Steve Israel to head the DCCC despite his abysmal job performance in 2012, she remarked that he's sufficiently "reptilian" to do the job? Just keep in mind, if you contribute even one dollar to the DCCC, some of that money goes to bolster the miserable careers of bigots like John Barrow and Mike McIntyre.

Si usted aporta ni un dólar al DCCC, parte de ese dinero se destina a impulsar las carreras miserables fanáticos como John Barrow y Mike McIntyre.

Pardon my French.

McKeon (R) and Barrow (D) both voted to deport DREAMers

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Did The DCCC Muck Up Jim Graves' Run In Minnesota... Again?

If you want to know how "Minnesota nice" sounds, call Jim Graves. He picked up the phone yesterday morning with the warmest, friendliest of greetings... and immediately said he isn't talking to the press until July first and suggested we talk about my upcoming trip to Tuscany instead. He suggested I spend time in Siena, long one of my favorite small European cities. As for questions around his dropping out of the congressional race in MN-06... not a peep, although he did follow up a few minutes later by sending this copy of the Bill Maher "the lights are a little bit dimmer in Crazy Town" video about Bachmann's withdrawal. Like me, Bill Maher will never be cited as an example of Minnesota Nice: "Michele Bachmann is out... still no word on her husband Marcus."

I think Jim likes Maher's interpretation of his leaving the field after vanquishing Bachmann. "Mission accomplished." But that wasn't his first reponse to Bachmann dropping out.

The morning that Bachmann suddenly announced she wouldn't seek reelection, Graves still seemed very interested in making the career leap from hotelier to congressman.

"I never ran against her. I ran for the people," Graves told KARE Wednesday morning.

He had been up late the night before watching the Minnesota Twins 14-inning game against the Milwaukee Brewers on TV, assuming he could sleep in for a change. His phone started ringing with media requests before 5:00 a.m.

The next day Graves apparently had a change of heart. He told reporter Eric Black of MinnPost that he was suspending his campaign for Congress. And furthermore, according to Black's MinnPost article, he would not be talking the other media about it.

"I think he then talked to some advisers, probably got some phone calls, talked to some of the folks he was expecting to get some campaign contributions from," Jacobs said.

He theorized Graves could no longer rely on national political money aimed at ousting Bachmann because she has voluntarily removed left the ballot. And the hotel executive has often said he had little interest in self-funding a campaign.

Notorious drunk Tom Emmer is running instead. Granted, it would be hard to get further right along the political spectrum than Bachmann, but ex-state legislator Emmer, currently working as a Hate Talk Radio host, is certainly not to her left... on anything. He's probably best known outside of Minnesota as the guy who Target had to apologize about contributing campaign funds to after Emmer's deranged homophobic mania became a campaign issue. (Target was probably so enamored of Emmer because one of the planks of his campaign platform was to lower the minimum wage.)

“I’m running for Congress to change the culture in Washington and restore Americans’ trust in our government,” Emmer told a group of about 100 supporters gathered Wednesday in his hometown of Delano, a Wright County community in the conservative heart of the 6th District. “Let’s get excessive regulation and taxes out of the way.”

He likely will face competition for the Republican endorsement, which he said he would respect.

State Sen. John Pederson of St. Cloud said he intends to file as a candidate by the end of the month. Former legislator Phil Krinkie, a 16-year legislator who now is president of the Taxpayers Leauge of Minnesota, and state Rep. Matt Dean have said they’re considering entering the contest.

However, Emmer, a former three-term state representative and the GOP nominee who lost to Gov. Mark Dayton in 2010, already has a base to build on.

“From the minute Bachmann got out, Emmer was in very strong position,” said political consultant Michael Brodkorb.

“He has a donor file, access to major fundraisers and the ability to pull together a team quickly," he said. "He lost a very close race for governor. It will make him a disciplined and hungry candidate who will assemble a team that will put him in a position to win.”

Emmer’s advantage as a seasoned campaigner is also his liability.

DFL Party Chair Ken Martin was quick to point that out in a statement: “In Emmer’s unsuccessful 2010 run for governor, he drained Republican Party resources and turned off the party’s major donor community. Many attribute his Ron Paul- and Sarah Palin-backed candidacy to sending Republican and independent votes Tom Horner’s way.”

Regular DWT readers probably don't need to be reminded that I tend to see Steve Israel and the DCCC lurking behind every door. But weeks before Jim Graves dropped out, we talked about how they had sabotaged his run in 2010. They decided to make up for it this year and named him a "Jump Start Candidate," on a par with Israel's most wretched zombie-like conservative candidates like Michael Eggman, Ann Callis, Gwen Graham, Kevin Strouse, et al.

Even before Bachmann dropped out, I started getting an inkling something was wrong. Rumors emanating from the DCCC were undercutting Graves' campaign and his relationships. One of the most corrupt DC organizations, the DCCC wanted to move their own band of incompetent crooks into the campaign so they could start pocketing the big cash the DCCC intended to spend there. With the DCCC, it's always about the rake off for the revolving door staffers. And then, on May 24, the Graves campaign sent out a press release slamming back at the DCCC:

Team Graves Running Independent Campaign

Following rumors reported in the national press from anonymous Washington “Democratic sources” that congressional candidate Jim Graves was pressured to replace his 2012 campaign team with Washington insiders, Graves released the following statement:

“We want to set the record straight. With all due respect to national figures rooting for our success, we are running our own campaign. One of the most valuable rules I have learned in business is ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.’ While Adam Graves, my 2012 campaign manager, decided to turn down the position of campaign manager for 2014 in order to focus on his life’s work as an accomplished philosopher and academic, he remains the closest advisor and strategist to our team. I promoted his deputy campaign manager, Aaron Wells, to manage the 2014 race.”

“Our 2012 team ran an extremely effective and efficient campaign to restore real leadership to our community. We place a high value on loyalty, particularly when folks work tirelessly and with great passion like our 2012 campaign team.”

When the DCCC moves into a campaign, they always try taking over so they can funnel the money into the pockets of their cronies. I can't think of a DCCC campaign where this hasn't happened. And Jim Graves won't be the first.

So, while we're on the subject of MN-06, who will the Democrats put up against Emmer? Thank goodness we haven't heard any stirrings from Elwin Tinklenberg. Tarryl Clark has been telling half the people she meets she's running again. Problem is, she's telling the other half she's not. Another would-be candidate is the anti-Choice mayor-- yes a Democrat-- of Sartell, Joe Perske. And then there's a "secret businessman" who's nosing around and who may or may not run. This one should be safe for the Republicans for another cycle.

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Yesterday The Republicans-- Plus 3 ConservaDems-- Voted To Get Busy Deporting Latinos

The overall bill was for appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security and that passed 245-182, 25 Democrats joining all but 10 Republicans in favor. The Democrats who crossed the aisle and voted for the bill were mostly a bunch of New Dem scum like Patrick Murphy (FL), Scott Peters (CA), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Sean Patrick Maloney (NY), John Barrow (GA), Bill Owens (NY), Brad Schneider (IL), Ami Bera (CA), Mike McIntyre (NC), Joe Garcia (FL), Ron Barber (AZ)... all the usual suspects backing the toxic GOP agenda. But the real problem was the amendment voted on earlier in the morning and offered by Iowa racist and neo-fascist Steve King. King's amendment defunds the Obama Administration DREAMer policy, which prioritizes deporting criminals instead of students.

Republicans have argued that these orders amount to the selective enforcement of U.S. immigration laws that discourages enforcement against children who were brought to the United States illegally, or illegal immigrant adults who are not in any legal trouble. Many Republicans have dubbed Obama's orders as "administrative amnesty."

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) sponsored the amendment to the 2014 Department of Homeland Security spending bill, and called for its passage in late Wednesday debate by saying Obama's orders-- also known as the Morton memos-- violate the Constitution.

"The point here is… the President does not have the authority to waive immigration law, nor does he have the authority to create it out of thin air, and he's done both with these Morton memos in this respect," King said.

King added that while the government has prosecutorial discretion, Obama does not have the authority to create classes of people who are exempt from the law through an executive order.

Democrats said King's language is a "poison pill" that would not survive final passage, and that the Supreme Court has ruled that the executive branch has the right to prioritize cases through an order.

"So for the gentleman to argue that there is some constitutional infirmity with deferred action is wrong," Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) said in response to King's arguments. "He's wrong on the law. He's wrong on his constitutional argument."

It passed by a much narrower margin, 224-201, only 3 of the most conservative Democrats in the House going along-- while half a dozen Republicans opposed Boehner and Cantor and cross the aisle to vote with the Democrats against it. The three Democrats backing the racist proposal:

• John Barrow (Blue Dog/New Dem-GA)
• Mike McIntyre (Blue Dog/New Dem-NC)
• Nick Rahall (confused-WV)

It will be interesting, of course, when the DCCC attacks Republicans for voting to deport Latinos. I mean they should attack Republicans on this vote but the fact that DCCC chairman Steve Israel is promising Barrow and McIntyre as much as $2 million each for their reelection campaign... well it really does smack of hypocrisy, especially when the DCCC says something to the effect of "send us money so we can defeat the evil deporters" and then gives millions to... evil deporters. Last cycle, he DCCC (and their House Majority PAC) spent $1,080,748 saving Barrow's ass from a weak opponent. This year he's likely to have a much tougher and better funded opponent. And last year, the DCCC's $2,005,888, propelled McIntyre to the narrowest of victories-- 165,590 to 167,057... just 533 votes. His opponent of last year, David Rouzer, is running again and will be much better funded. Maybe Barrow and McIntyre shouldn't be catering to Republican voters who want to replace them and think a little bit about Democratic voters who have few reasons to bother turning out on election day.

So someone still thinks there's any chance in hell the House will pass a comprehensive immigration bill? There are enough teabaggers and racists in the GOP caucus to keep even Republicans who understand the demographic tidal wave heading for places like Texas from backing any policy towards undocumented immigrants other than deportation. Period.

In response to the vote, United We Dream Managing Director Cristina Jimenez released the following statement:

“Representative Steve King, an anti-immigrant extremist with a history of attacking our community, is up to his old tricks. Late last night, Rep. King filed an amendment to block funding to the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which narrowly passed this morning. Our community, the immigrant youth movement, fought and won a huge victory last year with the deferred action policy. Now, some House Republicans are making their demands clear—a return to deporting DREAMers!

This is an outrage and the exact opposite of what our country needs from its political leaders. Does Speaker Boehner want to follow Rep. Steve King’s lead and seal his party’s fate as an out-of-touch, extremist party that has forever marginalized the immigrant and Latino community? Or will the House take a new direction and pass immigration reform that not only stops the deportations of DREAMers and our families but also creates a clear path to citizenship? It’s up to them. DREAMers will not let politicians get away with this.

Starting next week, United We Dream will once again bring dozens of DREAMers to Washington, D.C. to confront and challenge politicians who are blocking our path to citizenship and harming our community. We will be holding Senate and House negotiators from both parties responsible for protecting provisions that matter deeply to our families. We won’t settle for anything less than a clear path to citizenship, family unity, and an end to the deportations of DREAMers and our families.”

The White House statement was more succinct:

As the Senate prepares to debate bipartisan commonsense immigration reform next week, House Republicans chose to spend today passing an extreme amendment to strip protections from “Dreamers.” These are productive members of society who were brought here as young children, grew up in our communities, and became American in every way but on paper. This amendment, sponsored by Representative Steve King, runs contrary to our most deeply-held values as Americans. It asks law enforcement to treat these Dreamers the same way as they would violent criminals. It’s wrong. It’s not who we are. And it will not become law.

And Karl Rove warned Republicans that they could be sealing their fate for years to come. "Republicans must consider the impressions they will create," especially among Hispanic voters, Rove said Thursday in a Wall Street Journal column. "There is growing public support for providing a pathway to citizenship for those now in the country illegally."

Rove made note of how important the immigration issue could be to Republicans in future elections by pointing out that 58 percent of Hispanics seem immigration reform as one of the most important issues facing the country, topping everything else.

"A January Latino Decisions survey suggested that 42 percent of Hispanics would vote Republican or be more likely to if the GOP 'took a lead role' in passing comprehensive reform with a path to citizenship," he wrote.

"Many Hispanics won't be open to Republicans until it is resolved," Rove added.

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Not Jennifer Garrison Again! The DCCC Is Trying To Recruit Ohio's Sarah Palin To Run Against Bill Johnson

Steve and Jennifer-- a match made in hell

Clearly, the DCCC should be going after powerful Republican policy makers in vulnerable seats like Paul Ryan (where Obama scored 47%), John Mica (where Obama scored 47%), Ileana Ros Lehtinen (where Obama scored 53%), Peter King (where Obama scored 52%), Fred Upton (where Obama scored 49%), Mike Rogers (where Obama scored 48%), Buck McKeon (where Obama scored 48%), John Kline (where Obama scored 49%), and Darrell Issa (where Obama scored 46%). Instead Steve Israel is all about targeting pointless GOP backbenchers no one's ever heard of and wasting all the DCCC's resources on them even if they're in tough red districts. The Republicans above-- all powers for evil within Congress who Israel won't seriously pursue-- are in MUCH easier districts for Democrats than, say, ridiculous Republican nonentity Bill Johnson. His district has a PVI of R+8 and Romney beat Obama there 55-43%. But that's the kind of place Israel is trolling for conservative Democrats to shower money on. By way of comparison, here are the PVIs of districts who's Reps the DCCC hasn't-- so far-- been allowed to target because of Israel and Wasserman Schultz:

• Ryan- PVI-R+3
• Mica- PVI-R+4
• Ros-Lehtinen- PVI-R+2
• Peter King- PVI-R+1
• Upton- PVI-R+1
• Mike Rogers- PVI-R+2
• McKeon- PVI-R+3
• Kline- PVI-R+2
• Issa- PVI-R+4

A Midwest congressman with as much contempt for Steve Israel as I have alerted me to the fact that the DCCC has been trying to recruit former state Rep. Jennifer Garrison to run against Johnson, who won the seat against Blue Dog Charlie Wilson in the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse of 2010. Garrison, as we'll see in a moment, is far to the right of Wilson, who was defeated because the Democratic base couldn't bring themselves to vote for someone who had disappointed them by voting against the progressive agenda so consistently. His initial 135,628 votes (62%) in the 2006 midterms when he first won, shrunk down to a dismal 92,823 votes (45%) in the 2010 midterms-- while the GOP candidate grew from 82,848 (38%) in 2006 to Johnson's win in 2010 with 103,170 (50%). Last year the DCCC encouraged a rematch and Wilson was defeated by Johnson again-- 144,444 (47%) to 164,536 (53%). The DCCC, looking to restock the caucus with Blue Dogs, wasted just under $2.5 million on that race.

So what did the DCCC learn? Not to find a mainstream progressive Democrat to run against a colorless, dull Republican obstructionist-- but to find someone even further right-wing than Wilson (who died in April). Enter Jennifer Garrison, Ohio's Sarah Palin. Garrison can be best described as a vicious, homophobic, anti-union, anti-choice, pro-coal, anti-minimum wage, reactionary stooge. In other words, the perfect candidate for Ohio political boss, Chris Redfern, and DCCC chairman Steve Israel.

Garrison beat a Republican incumbent in 2004 to win a state house seat from Southeast Ohio, by ATTACKING HER GOP OPPONENT FOR BEING TOO PRO-GAY. Yes, you read that right. From the Gay People's Chronicle: Garrison already has a rocky relationship with the LGBT community. She won her House seat by gay-baiting her predecessor, Nancy Hollister, in 2004.

Earlier that year, Hollister was the only Republican to vote against the so-called “defense of marriage act.” It was considered a courageous vote.

Garrison sent out mailings that read, “If you believe marriage is between one man and one woman, there’s something you should know about Nancy Hollister.”

The other side of the card said, “DOMA was enacted precisely to protect Ohioans from having to accept ‘marriages’ or ‘unions’ entered into in other states. Despite the value of DOMA, Nancy Hollister voted against it. Jennifer Garrison believes marriage is between one man and one woman and will fight to protect our values.”

In 2006, as a member of the House Education Committee, Garrison helped to kill an amendment that would have required Ohio schools to protect students from bullying for their sexual orientation or gender identity.

The anti-bullying bill passed without the LGBT protections.

An attorney, Garrison opposed EHEA last year, saying it is wrong to single out classes of people for protection. This is a common talking point that anti-gays use against equality laws, and is legally flawed.

From the Akron Beacon Journal (November 11, 2004):

Garrison turned the Hollister vote [against the Ohio Defense of Marriage Act] into something seemingly sinister. She told the Parkersburg (W.Va.) newspapers that "the big difference between Nancy and I is the gay marriage issue. I am against it. She is for it."Garrison sent mailings into homes that read: "If you believe marriage is between one man and one woman, there is something you should know about Nancy Hollister." The mailing then all but declares that Hollister embraces gay marriage, concluding Garrison will "fight to protect our values." Karl Rove would be proud. Clearly, Garrison rode the wave of state Issue 1. She and her pals should be ashamed.

But not only content to have the LGBT community exist as second-class citizens, Jennifer Garrison also wants her own gender to subist that way. From a NARAL email yesterday:

Last week, Jennifer Garrison, a Democrat from Marietta, officially entered the race for Ohio’s Secretary of State. Jennifer Garrison currently serves in the Ohio House of Representatives and has a 0% rating from NARAL Pro-Choice Ohio.

Rep. Garrison showed just how extreme her anti-choice position is when she filled out the 2008 candidate questionnaire for Ohio Right to Life, saying she would:

• support legislation in Ohio to outlaw abortion (with only an exception to save a woman’s life),

• support legislation that would allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense emergency contraception, and

• support state funding for so-called “crisis pregnancy centers” that lie to women about the risks of abortion and never refer patients for abortion or birth control services.

Representative Garrison does not share our values.

She has also voted against the minimum wage, has counted coal interests as a top-ten funder and would like to protect the rights of criminals to get their hands on guns.

Ohio Progressives finally drove Garrison out of politics in 2010. We may have finally found a conservative Democratic woman who is actually too conservative even for EMILY's List, but Steve Israel wants to get her back in again. Why doesn't he go do something vaguely useful instead-- like finding someone to run against Darrell Issa?

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If Darrell Issa Is So Rich, Why Doesn't He Get His Teeth Whitened?

On Saturday I asserted that Darrell Issa should be a top priority target for the DCCC, rather than just another vile Republican committee chairman who gets a free reelection pass from Steve Israel, like he did last year. Issa's San Diego/Orange County district has a PVI of R+4, a district that can be won and a district worth fighting for-- at least in terms of building an infrastructure to win in 2016.

But the DCCC isn't doing anything about recruiting a viable candidate against Issa. Steve Israel prefers spending his time and resources against backbenchers no one has ever heard about or cares about. Issa is all over the media and every time he makes an appearance the Democratic base is filled with loathing. I don't expect Steve Israel has ever met anyone from the Democratic base though.

Maybe after Issa's fumbled appearance on CNN yesterday, Israel will sense an opportunity... although that isn't likely. Issa made a blanket statement about political officials in the Obama administration orchestrating the IRS probe into teabaggers groups who were, after all, trying to claim they should get classified as non-profits because they're not political-- even though they are political. But Issa is vowing his witch-hunt will continue until he finds evidence to prove what he believes-- no matter how off base that is.

"You don’t have that direct link," Crowley continued. "You have the frontline agents going, yeah, we figured it was from Washington or I believe it was, but as of yet you don’t have that definitive, yeah, this guy called me and said, people, go look for tea party and patriot applications." Issa claimed his investigation would eventually turn up direct evidence of his charges and described White House Press Secretary Jay Carney as a "paid liar" for claiming that Washington officials did not direct IRS agents.

The Inspector General's report into the matter concluded that the IRS relied on "inappropriate criteria” while vetting groups applying for nonprofit status by using a BOLO-- "Be On the Look Out"-- list and blamed IRS officials in Washington, DC, for "insufficient oversight" of lower-level staffers. However, it specifically concluded that "All of these officials stated that the criteria were not influenced by any individual or organization outside the IRS."

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Why Darrell Issa Should Be A DCCC Top Priority... Instead Of Another Chairman Steve Israel Gives A Free Pass To Reelection

Last year, Darrel Issa skated to reelection, winning back his seat (CA-49) 139-127 (59%) to 97,454 (41%). There are parts of two counties in the district: Orange County, where he won 66% and, San Diego, where he won 56%. There's more than twice as much San Diego in CA-49 as Orange County. Does that seem too hopeless to tackle? Let's look a little closer.

In 2008, Obama and McCain basically tied, although Obama officially won the district by a few votes. Last year Romney did better than McCain, besting Obama 52-46%. The PVI is R+4. Half a dozen Democrats won in districts that had PVIs of R+4 or worse.

Issa, who began his professional career as a car thief and commercial arsonist, is the richest man in Congress. He spent $1,115,222 on his campaign last year. His opponent, Jerry Tetalman, spent $127,720. The DCCC spent exactly nothing in the race-- zero. The only outside help Jerry Tetalman got was from the San Diego and Imperial Counties Labor Council: $111.

I live up the road from Issa's district, way up the road in Los Angeles. But his district reminds me of a district abutting my own back in the 90s-- CA-27. Republican Carlos Moorhead represented the Pasadena-centered district for over two decades. It had started turning bluer and Moorhead retired in 1997. A right-wing extremist, James Rogan, won the seat-- but with just 50.1%. He was reelected once-- and then made a fatal error. He became a high-profile manager of Bill Clinton's impeachment, Democrats were furious and the DCCC weighed in on behalf of the Democratic candidate, Adam Schiff. And Schiff won-- 53-44%. The district (CA-28) is solidly Democratic now and Schiff, a mediocre congressman, at best, was reelected 154,348 (76%) to 49,501 (24%). It's only a matter of time before Issa's district goes the same way.

A couple of weeks ago, I suggested that the DCCC establish a special category for Republican targets-- a category based on how hated the incumbent is-- the way Rogan was hated in 2000. Probably the most hated incumbents in Congress are John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Bachmann (who's retiring, so we'll leave her out of this discussion), Darrell Issa. Boehner and Cantor have very difficult districts for Democrats, respectively R+15 and R+10. Issa and Ryan are much more vulnerable, respectively R+4 and R+3.

I think Rachel makes the case in the video above why the DCCC should stop protecting evildoers like Issa-- particularly Issa, as a matter of fact. Are they recruiting a candidate who could make some headway in 2014 and then, if he or she comes up short, win in 2016? That's how it's done. Too bad Pelosi picked a congenital loser to run the DCCC.

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Can The Democrats Retake The House Next Year?

Steve Israel's talking point is "problem solvers." He repeats it like a mantra. But there's something else interesting that he said in his interview with USA Today, in response to a question about what it means that the DCCC spent so lavishly in South Carolina a few weeks ago, only to lose-- and by a wide margin-- to one of the most flawed Republican candidates ever, Mark Sanford. Israel pointed out the SC-01 "is one of the 100 most Republican districts in the country (which isn't exactly true. The PVI is R+11 and it's ranked the 118th most Republican): "I made a decision that we're not going to give up on any district and we're not going to give up on any candidate... It would have been easy for me to walk away, but we'll fight wherever we have a chance." Almost sounds less reptilian... and more like Churchill.

As we mentioned before a few times, last year Israel very much did walk away from Jim Graves in his race against Michele Bachmann. After putting him on the Red to Blue list, Israel decided not to spend any money at all in the district. Bachmann spent $11,946,232 to Graves' $2,279,384 but he came a lot closer to beating her than many of Israel's handpicked candidates where the DCCC spent millions. The 4,197 votes by which Bachmann beat Graves would certainly have been made up had the DCCC spent the kind of money in MN-06 that they spent bolstering losing candidates like Blue Dog Gary McDowell (1,282,979), Blue Dog Brendan Mullen ($483,721), New Dem Julian Schreibman ($2,037,612), Joe Oceguera ($2,649,541) or Pat Kreitlow ($2,069,595) to name a few.

And Graves wasn't the only viable Democratic candidate Israel gave the cold shoulder-- and a cold shoulder often comes with an explicit message to big donors to NOT give contributions. Had Israel been even vaguely competent last go-round, among the Republicans who wouldn't be serving in Congress this session are right-wingers in MUCH bluer districts than Bachmann's. These are Republicans who could have been defeated had Steve Israel just done his job. None comes from an R+11 district like SC-01. In fact none comes from a district above R+4-- and all are powerful GOP House leaders who were actively protected by Steve Israel:

• Darrell Issa (CA)
• John Mica (FL)
• Joe Pitts (PA)
• Scott Garrett (NJ)
• Paul Ryan (WI)
• Buck McKeon (CA)
• Frank Wolf (VA)
• Mike Rogers (MI)
• John Kline (MN)
• Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
• Fred Upton (MI)
• Peter King (NY)

And this dozen only includes committee chairs and powerful Members that Israel put off the table, despite their political vulnerabilities and despite, in some cases, excellent Democratic candidates. The good news is that Israel may be lightening up on his protection racket a little and allowing DCCC staffers some leeway in going after vulnerable big shot Republicans. As you can see in the video above, he's very enthusiastic about Jim Graves this time around. There are reasons to believe he is equally enthusiastic about targeting Kline, McKeon and Garrett... at least a small step in the right direction.

There's a new national poll out that shows registered voters prefer to have a Democrat win their district than a Republican. And the margin is significant-- 48% of respondents picked the generic Democrat and 40% picked the generic Republican. But voters don't usually chose between generic candidates. That's why recruitment this year will determine what happens in November 2014.

One of the easiest districts for a Democrat to win would be FL-27, the seat now held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. But there is no recruitment; there is anti-recruitment. DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has made it abundantly clear to Florida Democrats that she will not tolerate anyone credible running against Ileana, who, like her, is owned by the sugar baron Fanjul brothers. Last year Obama's 7 point margin in FL-27 was one of the highest margins of victory in any district held by a Republican Member of Congress. But Wasserman Schultz had the DCCC make sure there would be no viable candidate. The "Democrat" who ran, Manny Yevancey, still hasn't filed an FEC financial disclosure report, which means he raised and spent less than $5,000. His petitions-- which were commercially collected by a firm in Tampa that was paid by "someone else"-- is almost totally signed by folks in Tampa, not in Miami, Coral Gables, Hialeah, Miami Springs, South Miami, Westchester or anywhere else in Ros-Lehtinen's district. The total signatures on his petitions from Miami-Dade- 12. The total from Tampa- 1,147. And the other counties with significant petition numbers were also on the other side of the state, Hillsborough with 656 and Pasco with 502. Very convenient for Wasserman Schultz and Ros-Lehtinen to have a candidate with no income, no roots and no chance-- and old dirty trick that anti-democracy hacks employee.

That all said, there were still 84,899 (37%) voters willing to cast their ballots against Ros-Lehtinen and for an unknown "Democrat" who didn't campaign. Imagine if Steve Israel had ignored Wasserman Schultz' demand that Ros-Lehtinen's seat be off limits and had instead recruited a good candidate and gone after her. So far this year, Wasserman Schultz is guarding the process like a mad dog again and despite several DCCC staffers who would like to target Ros-Lehtinen, there is no movement whatsoever on recruiting a Democrat with a reasonable chance to win. There is no way for the DCCC to win back the House with this kind of leadership. Israel and Wasserman Schultz are the worst examples of why grassroots Democrats hate Inside-the-Beltway Democrats and why so many refuse to even turn up at the polls on election day. When Nancy Pelosi re-appointed Steve Israel to chair the DCCC again this year, she sealed the fate of her party to be in the minority again for the 114th Congress.

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Not Every Vulnerable Candidate Folds And Joins The Enemy-- But A Lot Of Democrats Are Doing That

Sunday, Bill Jarman at Daily Kos created two charts of the most vulnerable Members of the House, a chart of Democrats (above) and a chart of Republicans (below). He combined data on the nature of their districts with data on how close their last race was to come up with his conclusions. I cut each chart off at the #25 most vulnerable. He explained his methodology by way of example:

Here's an example of how it works: Take, for instance, the Democratic House member that the Index deems most vulnerable, Jim Matheson of Utah's 4th congressional district. If you refer back to the earlier diaries, you'll see that he had the second-closest race of any House Democrat in 2012, winning against Mia Love by only 0.3 percent. And he has the reddest district of any House Democrat in 2012, as measured by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, clocking in at R+16 (thanks to Barack Obama getting only 30.2 percent of the vote there in 2012). Add together 2 (for the 2nd closest race) and 1 (for the 1st most red district), and you've got a total score of only 3 (a lower number means greater vulnerability). No other Democrat tops that, although Mike McIntyre, who had the closest race and is in the 3rd reddest district, NC-07, comes very close.

His fascinating post is mostly about methodology. I want to go someplace entirely different-- a place about... well, maybe character. Let me explain it and while I'm writing maybe I'll figure out what it's actually about. What I've done is made a list of the vulnerable candidates in accord with Jarman's calculations and then I compared them with each candidate's Progressive Punch crucial vote score. So what I want to see is if being vulnerable makes Democrats more or less progressive and if being vulnerable makes Republicans more or less reactionary. Let's look at the Republicans first, from most vulnerable to less vulnerable. The number next to their name is their 2013-only score. The names bolded and candidates the DCCC did not challenge in 2012 by spending serious money against them.

• Gary Miller- 4.55
• Rodney Davis- 8.70
• Mike Coffman- 0.00
• Chris Gibson- 34.78
• Jeff Denham- 0.00
• Joe Heck- 8.70
• Tom Lanham- 8.70
• Jon Runyan- 26.09
• Tom Reed- 18.18
• Michael "Mikey Suits" Grimm- 42.11
• Scott Rigell- 8.70
• John Kline- 0.00
• Lee Terry- 4.35
• Dan Benishek- 0.00
• Fred Upton- 0.00
• Kerry Bentivolio- 4.35
• Mike Fitzpatrick- 13.04
• Sean Duffy- 0.00
• Tim Walberg- 0.00
• Buck McKeon- 4.35
• David Valadao 0.00
• Justin Amash- 34.78
• Paul Ryan- 0.00
• Jackie Walorski- 0.00
• Jim Gerlach- 8/70

So what do we see-- aside from the fact that DCCC Chairman Steve Israel threw the election by not going after over half the most vulnerable seats? Almost none of the Republicans are trying to come across as moderates or even mainstream with their votes. Ten of them have 0.00 scores and another 8 have less than 10. The only Republicans among Jarman's most vulnerable who have moved towards the mainstream at all are Chris Gibson (NY), Jon Runyan (NJ), Tom Reed (NY), and Michael "Mikey Suits" Grimm (NY). A note about Amash. His raw score looks like he could be moving but he's on Planet Justin and isn't trying to be moderate ever; he just marches to a different beat than anyone else. Now the Democratic list looks VERY different.

• Jim Matheson (Blue Dog)- 21.74
• Mike McInyre (Blue Dog/New Dem)- 40.91
• Ron Barber (New Dem)- 39.13
• Patrick Murphy (New Dem)- 47.83
• Ann Kirkpatrick- 31.82
• Pete Gallego (Blue Dog)- 52.17
• Ami Bera (New Dem)- 47.83
• John Barrow (Blue Dog/New Dem)- 47.83
• Carol Shea-Porter- 77.27
• Bill Owens (New Dem)- 39.13
• Tim Bishop- 73.91
• Nick Rahall- 65.22
• Kyrsten Sinema (New Dem)- 43.48
• Sean Maloney (New Dem)- 43.48
• Raul Ruiz- 43.48
• Scott Peters (New Dem)- 43.48
• Elizabeth Esty (New Dem)- 68.18
• John Tierney- 81.82
• Ann Kuster- 43.48
• Joe Garcia (New Dem)- 52.17
• Bill Enyart- 47.83
• Rick Nolan- 91.30
• Julia Brownley- 52.17
• Tim Walz- 52.17

Here we see a lot more craven cowardice. Five of them-- Matheson, McIntyre, Barber, Kirkpatrick and Owens-- might as well be taking orders directly from Eric Cantor. It's absurd to consider them Democrats at all. A whole gaggle of freshmen New Dems are virtually just casting votes exactly the way Steve Israel of the DCCC tells them to based on how he thinks-- a guy who's has been proven to be politically incompetent-- and have voting scores that have move very much to the right. The only Democratic incumbents voting with the courage of their convictions are Rick Nolan, John Tierney, Carol Shea-Porter, Tim Bishop and Nick Rahall.

I noticed Monday morning that far right-wing extremist Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) is calling for the impeachment of President Obama. It doesn't matter how nihilistic and radical the congressmen get in deep red districts like UT-03. Romney won there with a startling 79-20% and Chaffetz was reelected 76-24%. The Hate Talk Radio-infused voters in this backward district expect this kind of behavior from Chaffetz. They're probably crazier than he is. Democrats in districts as deeply blue as that one is deeply red, don't elect left-wing extremists... or even, necessarily mainstream progressives. NC-12 went for Obama 79-21% in November. The folks there are represented by Mel Watt, a vaguely progressive middle-of-the-road Democrat. Any radical bone he ever had in his body has softened considerably with age. The DCCC has managed to control who gets nominated and that's why the freshman caucus is filled with conservative New Dems who vote with Republicans far more than Republicans cross the aisle in the other direction.


There are a lot of reasons these charts aren't predictive. The methodology is imperfect in regard to everything and some of these incumbents will have good opponents and some won't have any serious opponents at all. Steve Israel will continue protecting friends of his from the Center Aisle Caucus (like Upton). Some of these folks will raise immense sums of money and some won't raise enough to fend off determined challengers. Just another couple of factors to ponder.

Matheson & Nolan, respectively the most cowardly and the most courageous

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