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Tuesday, 25 June 2013

Is It Political Suicide For Paul Ryan To Still Be Hawking A Failed European Austerity Agenda?

Posted on 10:00 by Ashish Chaturvedi

Martin Wolf's autopsy of Europe's Austerity Agenda for the New York Review of Books doesn't even mention Paul Ryan. But I hope Democrat Rob Zerban, who nearly beat Ryan in 2012 and will take him on again next year, is reading it and absorbing it. It really is-- at least as much as Ayn Rand's adolescent writing-- what Ryan is all about.

After Ryan's buddies in the state legislature gerrymandered WI-01 to make it redder and safer, Ryan managed to beat Zerban 55-43%, his closest call since he was first elected. Zerban won his home county, Kenosha, and he also won Ryan's home county, Rock. Ryan swamped him, 73-25%, in the clueless, blood red Republican heartland that had been appended onto the district in Waukesha County. The biggest county, Racine, was very close. Ryan took it with 51%. Next year Zerban will win Racine by a bigger margin than that. I doubt many people in Waukesha read the NY Review of Books or even have a clear idea what the Austerity Agenda Ryan has been trying to import to America, even is. It will be up to Zerban to help these folks understand it-- and how it impacts them and their families. Wolf, who works for the Financial Times, is one of the world's most highly regarded and influential economic journalists. In his words, "Austerity has failed. It turned a nascent recovery into stagnation. That imposes huge and unnecessary costs, not just in the short run, but also in the long term: the costs of investments unmade, of businesses not started, of skills atrophied, and of hopes destroyed." He isn't alone as seeing it as one gigantic blunder, one that should, in a rational world, sink the careers of austerians like Paul Ryan.
Austerity came to Europe in the first half of 2010, with the Greek crisis, the coalition government in the UK, and above all, in June of that year, the Toronto summit of the group of twenty leading countries. This meeting prematurely reversed the successful stimulus launched at the previous summits and declared, roundly, that "advanced economies have committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve deficits by 2013."

This was clearly an attempt at austerity, which I define as a reduction in the structural, or cyclically adjusted, fiscal balance-- i.e., the budget deficit or surplus that would exist after adjustments are made for the ups and downs of the business cycle. It was an attempt prematurely and unwisely made. The cuts in these structural deficits, a mix of tax increases and government spending cuts between 2010 and 2013, will be around 11.8 percent of potential GDP in Greece, 6.1 percent in Portugal, 3.5 percent in Spain, and 3.4 percent in Italy. One might argue that these countries have had little choice. But the UK did, yet its cut in the structural deficit over these three years will be 4.3 percent of GDP.

What was the consequence? In a word, "dire."

In 2010, as a result of heroic interventions by the monetary and fiscal authorities, many countries hit by the crisis enjoyed surprisingly good recoveries from the “great recession” of 2008–2009. This then stopped. The International Monetary Fund now thinks, perhaps optimistically, that the British economy will expand by 1.8 percent between 2010 and 2013. But it expanded by 1.8 percent between 2009 and 2010 alone. The economy has now stagnated for almost three years. Even if the IMF is right about a recovery this year, it will be 2015 before the economy reaches the size it was before the crisis began.




The picture in the eurozone is worse: its economy expanded by 2 percent between 2009 and 2010. It is now forecast to expand by a mere 0.4 percent between 2010 and 2013. Austerity has put the crisis-hit countries through a wringer, with huge and ongoing recessions. Rates of unemployment are more than a quarter of the labor force in Greece and Spain.

...Why is strong fiscal support needed after a financial crisis? The answer for the crisis of recent years is that, with the credit system damaged and asset prices falling, short-term interest rates quickly fell to the lower boundary—that is, they were cut to nearly zero. Today, the highest interest rate offered by any of the four most important central banks is half a percent. Used in conjunction with monetary policy, aggressive and well-designed fiscal stimulus is the most effective response to the huge decrease in spending by individuals as they try to save money in order to pay down debt. This desire for higher savings is the salient characteristic of the post–financial crisis economy, which now characterizes the US, Europe, and Japan. Together these three still make up more than 50 percent of the world economy.

Of course, some think that neither monetary nor fiscal policy should be used. Instead, they argue, we should “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” In other words, sell everything until they reach a rock-bottom price at which point, supposedly, the economy will readjust and spending and investing will resume. That, according to Herbert Hoover, was the advice he received from Andrew Mellon, the Treasury secretary, as America plunged into the Great Depression. Mellon thought government should do nothing. This advice manages to be both stupid and wicked. Stupid, because following it would almost certainly lead to a depression across the advanced world. Wicked, because of the misery that would follow.

...The UK certainly did have alternatives-- a host of them. It could have chosen from a wide range of different fiscal policies. The government could, for example, have:

1. Increased public investment, rather than halving it (initially decided by Labour), when it enjoyed zero real interest rates on long-term borrowing.

2. It could have cut taxes.

3. It could have slowed the pace of reduction in current spending.

It could, in brief, have preserved more freedom to respond to the exceptional circumstances it confronted.

Why did the government not do so?

1. It believed, and was advised to believe, that monetary policy alone could do the job. But monetary policy is hard to calibrate when interest rates are already so low (at or close to zero) and potentially damaging particularly in the form of asset bubbles. Fiscal policy is not only more direct, but it can also be more easily calibrated and, when the time comes, more easily reversed.

2. The government believed that its fiscal plans gave it credibility and so would deliver lower long-term interest rates. But what determines long-term interest rates for a sovereign country with a floating exchange rate is the expected future short-term interest rates. These rates are determined by the state of the economy, not that of the public finances. In the emergency budget of June 2010, the cumulative net borrowing of the public sector between 2011 and 2015–2016 had been forecast to be £322 billion; in the June 2013 budget, this borrowing is forecast at £539.4 billion, that is, 68 percent more. Has this failure destroyed confidence and so raised long-term interest rates on government bonds? No.

3. It believed that high government deficits would crowd out private spending-- that is, the need of the government to borrow would leave less room for private borrowing. But after a huge financial crisis, there is no such crowding out because private firms are reluctant to invest, and consumers are reluctant to spend, in a weak economic environment.

4. It argued that the UK had too much debt. But the UK government started the crisis with close to its lowest net public debt relative to gross domestic product in three hundred years. It still has a debt ratio much lower than its long-term historical average (which is about 110 percent of GDP).

5. The government argued that the UK could not afford additional debt. But that, of course, depends on the cost of debt. When debt is as cheap as it is today, the UK can hardly afford not to borrow. It is impossible to believe that the country cannot find public investments-- the cautious IMF itself urges more spending on infrastructure-- that will generate positive real returns. Indeed, with real interest rates negative, borrowing is close to a “free lunch.”

6. The government now believes that the UK has very little excess capacity. But even the most pessimistic analysts believe it has some. Of course, the right policy would address both demand and supply, together. But I, for one, cannot accept that the UK is fated to produce 16 percent less than its pre-crisis trend of growth suggested. Yes, some of that output was exaggerated. There is no reason to believe so much was.

We, on this side of the argument, are certainly not stating that premature austerity is the only reason for weak economies: the financial crisis, the subsequent end of the era of easy credit, and the adverse shocks are crucial. But austerity has made it far more difficult than it needed to be to deal with these shocks.

The right approach to a crisis of this kind is to use everything: policies that strengthen the banking system; policies that increase private sector incentives to invest; expansionary monetary policies; and, last but not least, the government’s capacity to borrow and spend.

Failing to do this, in the UK, or failing to make this possible, in the eurozone, has helped cause a lamentably weak recovery that is very likely to leave long-lasting scars. It was a huge mistake. It is not too late to change course.
It won't be easy, but if Rob Zerban can convey this to suburban votes in southern Milwaukee County, the suburban areas of Racine County and to at least some of the folks living south and west of the city of Waukesha from Muskego to Mukwonago to North Prairie and Wales, we'll never hear from Paul Ryan again-- which would be a tremendous boon to working families all over America.


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Blog Archive

  • ▼  2013 (500)
    • ►  July (35)
    • ▼  June (150)
      • People For The American Way Makes The Case For Def...
      • The Supreme Court sends a message to would-be job ...
      • Sunday Classics: In "The Flying Dutchman" Wagner s...
      • Digital Dementia-- Is It For Real?
      • FEC Quarter Ends Today; Should You Care?
      • Does Steve Israel Understand How To Make GOP Racis...
      • TV Watch: I'm going to try again, but I still won'...
      • Court And Spark
      • Right To Vote/Right To Marry: The Red States
      • Bipartisanship... The Good Kind
      • Sunday Classics preview: A little more of "The Fly...
      • Now that we've heard from everyone else about marr...
      • Arizona’s Freshmen Reps: What’s Going On Here?
      • Wendy Davis For Governor Of Texas?
      • A Note From DCCC Chairman Steve Israel: "Top Race ...
      • Can Boneheaded Florida Republican Tom Rooney Keep ...
      • Could Morris Bender have diagnosed what's wrong wi...
      • Comprehensive Immigration Bill Passed The Senate.....
      • Hanabusa at a Crossroads-- Will It Lead Back to Co...
      • Minutemen-- Liars, Rapists, Murderers, Nazis... An...
      • Your Supreme Court at work and play -- as same-sex...
      • Republican SuperPACs Aren't Bringing In The Cash T...
      • Barbara Buono's Lesbian Daughter Is In A Very Diff...
      • Democratic Senators Who Voted To Confirm Fascists ...
      • Ed Markey Won The Senate Seat-- Now Let's Make Sur...
      • OMG, Anthony Weiner is now the NYC mayoral front r...
      • Another Manifestation Of The GOP Civil War: Utah's...
      • Chamber Of Commerce Moves To Bolster Their Boy Rub...
      • Is It Political Suicide For Paul Ryan To Still Be ...
      • Is It Worth It For The Democrats To Try Winning Th...
      • So you think it's a piece of cake being a far-righ...
      • One Final Kaddish For The Farm Bill... And John Bo...
      • Guess What Blanche Lincoln Has Been Up To To Make ...
      • Morsi's New Governor Of Luxor Resigns Amid Growing...
      • Dan Lipinski Joins The Blue Dogs As They Gasp Thei...
      • How Do You Figure Out Who To Vote For? How Do You ...
      • Behind the scenes with the Gang of Eight -- with a...
      • Tomorrow Is A Big Day For Miss McConnell
      • Sunday Classics: "In the lilt of Irish laughter, y...
      • I Got A Call From A New Dem Friday
      • TV Watch: James Gandolfini (1961-2013)
      • Dolce, Gabbana and... Rick's Auto Body
      • Paul LePage, What A Goober!
      • It's Almost As Though The Georgia GOP Has Figured ...
      • Things Are Bleak In Boehnerland This Week
      • Sunday Classics preview: You know who this famous ...
      • To reduce litter, you get rid of the trash recepta...
      • In 10 Days The Republicans Will Force Student Loan...
      • Progressives Break With The Clinton-Bush-Obama Tra...
      • DCCC-- No Shame Whatsoever In Exploiting Women
      • Threats Of Primaries By GOP Racists Make It Harder...
      • "Why America Still Needs Affirmative Action" (John...
      • SNAP! Agricultural Subsidies For Wealthy Republica...
      • CONTEST TIME: Nick Ruiz Is Into The Cult
      • Rick Weiland Guest Post On His Take It Back Campai...
      • A Perspective Of Gezi Park From An Old Turkish Hippie
      • The new Men's Wearhouse slogan: "You're going to l...
      • So Even a Pathetic Pipsqueak Like Dana Rohrbacher ...
      • Hanabusa Cozies Up to Defense Contractors
      • When Did The GOP Become The Party of Unrelenting M...
      • The World Is Less Peaceful In 2013
      • When we make "tradeoffs" for "national security," ...
      • Begich Admits What His Voting Record Proves: At He...
      • When Will The Republican Party End It's Sick Jihad...
      • Big Business Has A Friend-- Congress
      • Is Debbie Wasserman Schultz Maneuvering To Get Cha...
      • A spokesman clarifies Pope Francis's announced con...
      • Will We Have To Go Back To Drinking Wine Instead o...
      • We Need A Nobel Peace Prize Winner In The White Ho...
      • New Jersey Has A Senate Front-Runner Nearly As Sic...
      • Oh no, Pam Spaulding is closing down "Pam's House ...
      • Can Florida Democrats Blow The 2014 Gubernatorial ...
      • Reactionary New Dems Help GOP Pass A Fatally Flawe...
      • Sunday Classics: Father's Day special -- Wagner's ...
      • Does The Pope Refuse To Live In The Papal Apartmen...
      • TV Watch: Maybe "Graceland" only seems "formulaic"...
      • Rightists Have Always Been Obsessed With Homosexua...
      • The House Finally Voted To End The War In Afghanistan
      • Iran, Syria, Obama-Bush and... Alan Grayson
      • Will Glenn Greenwald Run For Congress Against Pete...
      • Sunday Classics preview: Father's Day special -- m...
      • Who was who in the Iranian presidential election? ...
      • Steve Israel And The Gatsby Curve-- If The Music I...
      • Lindsey Graham Wants War-- War Against American Ci...
      • Heather Mizeur: Not Interested In Business As Usua...
      • Is "system" really the word for our two-party, er,...
      • DeMint Is Ready To Go To War-- Against Conservativ...
      • Solar Energy In L.A.-- And Japan
      • Former Republican Congressman Rick Renzi Is Finall...
      • Yes, There Are Still NRA Shills Among Congressiona...
      • Republican Anti-Immigration Filibuster Is Defeated...
      • Is he a hero or not a hero? No, not the NSA guy! I...
      • Does The DCCC Actually Care About Immigration Policy?
      • Corrupt New Jersey Machine Dems Gravitate To Chris...
      • Conservative Men Further Ramp Up Their War Against...
      • Isn't it time we all got our priorities on NSA sur...
      • The Banksters Know Just How To Fix Spain's Economy...
      • Republican Hatred Of Science (And Reality) Lends I...
      • O Hillary
      • Lunch Anyone? How DC Works... At Least On The Righ...
    • ►  May (153)
    • ►  April (148)
    • ►  March (14)
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Ashish Chaturvedi
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