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Monday, 6 May 2013

Tomorrow South Carolina Voters Decide Between Colbert's Sister And The Obsessive Sex Fiend

Posted on 21:00 by Ashish Chaturvedi



Actually, it's not all of South Carolina. We're talking about SC-01, along the coast, a district that's not as crazy and extremist as the up-country congressional districts where talk of secession is still a hot topic. It's next door to SC-06, into which the legislature managed to gerrymander every conceivable African American in the area. SC-06 gave Obama 70.9% of its vote in November and reelected Jim Clyburn without opposition. Of South Carolina's 6 other--basically all white-- districts Obama went above 40% in only two-- SC-05 (with African-American-majority Fairfield and Lee counties as well as Democratic-leaning Chester and Sumter counties) and SC-01, where Obama actually won Charleston County. Nevertheless, if Colbert Busch wins Tuesday, there would only be three Democrats in Congress representing redder districts: Mike McIntyre (Blue Dog-NC), whose district has a PVI of R+12, Nick Rahall (D-WV), whose district has a PVI of R+14, and Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT), whose district has a PVI of R+16. SC-01 has a PVI of R+11. The three of them-- particularly the two Blue Dogs, vote with the GOP on crucial roll calls far more frequently than they vote with Democrats. Boehner and Cantor know they can count on Matheson and McIntyre and, to a lesser degree Rahall, whenever push comes to shove. Judging by her campaign statements, Colbert Busch is more likely to fall in around Rahall than McIntyre and Matheson. Unlike them, she's socially liberal-- pro-marriage equality, pro-Choice, pro-immigrant, pro-background checks, for example-- and then goes all GOP when it comes to economic issues. She's made some pretty nasty anti-union statements: “I’m proud to live in and support a right-to-work state" and “This is a right-to-work state and NLRB had no business telling Boeing where they can locate" and she's managed to attack Obama on Chained CPI-- although you might interpret that as backing Bernie Sanders and Alan Grayson-- and on Obamacare, which she says needs "an enormous fix," which most progressives also agree with.


Sanford's campaign is all about trying to make voters forget he's a corrupt philanderer and a serial liar and think he's running against Nancy Pelosi. Colbert's sister is no Nancy Pelosi, not by a longshot. Nor is she some backward sleazy Blue Dog, willing to say anything to get elected. Polling hasn't been going her way lately. Late in April-- before the big right-wing money started pouring into the district (as well as the slimy smear campaign), she was clearing pulling away from Sanford and looked like a sure winner. She had a 9% margin and 56% of poll respondents had a favorable opinion of her-- as opposed to Sanford's 56% unfavorable rating. A more recent poll-- though not as reliable as the PPP poll cited above-- shows the race exactly tied, 46-46% with 7% undecided.

If money is going to decide the race, it's likely Colbert Busch will win. The NRCC, embarrassed by Sanford's ethical problems, pulled out and the DCCC and their House Majority PAC have invested very heavily. Colbert Busch outraised Sanford by around $400,000 but she burned through it faster, leaving Sanford with a $30,000 advantage of cash-on-hand in the final week.
Both campaigns had donors-- individuals and PACs-- from a variety of interest group areas, and both saw support from traditional backers of their respective parties. Lawyers and law firms were the top backers of Colbert Busch's campaign, giving her $38,250. She also picked up support from the education industry and industrial unions. Given her famous brother, it's no surprise to see that donors from the TV, movies and music industry chipped in $13,200.

Sanford received his greatest support from the securities and investment industry, which sent his campaign $54,000, followed by the real estate industry, which sent him $51,000.

Besides raising far less money than Colbert-Busch, Sanford is taking a huge hit when it comes to outside spending. According to OpenSecrets.org's profile of the race, outside groups have spent more than $929,000 on independent expenditures against Sanford. Conservative groups have spent only about $15,000 to help him. Meanwhile only about $4,600 has been spent by outside groups attacking Colbert Busch, while $1,500 has been spent upporting her.
The DCCC has chipped in $458,234 (of which $214,849 came in last week) and their SuperPAC, House Majority PAC put in another $425,851 (including $165,027 last week). Last week a right-wing anti-Choice "women's" group, Independent Women's Voice put down $96,584 slamming Colbert Busch (ad below), a candidate who is viewed with disgust and contempt by most women, regardless of political leanings. And FreedomWorks kicked down $1,614 last week. In teh last couple of days, wealthy Republicans have helped Sanford close the money gap and the last minute poll by PPP shows the race even-- with Sanford momentum.
PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.

Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district-- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

While Colbert Busch is seen as too liberal, 48% of voters think that Sanford's views are 'about right' on the issues compared to just 38% who see him as too conservative. Sanford's also seen some repair to his image over the course of the campaign. Although he's still unpopular, sporting a -11 net favorability rating at 43/54, that's up a net 13 points from our first poll in March when he was at 34/58.
Alan Grayson (D-FL) asked his own donors to contribute to Colbert Busch's campaign and to support her efforts to beat Sanford. He was relieved she's at least pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, even if they don't see eye to eye on any number of issues. (Grayson, for example, is a major union supporter.) But his feelings are that if there's any chance to beat a Republican with a Democrat, it's worth the effort. "I'm going to ask you to support her campaign because the last thing that we need in the U.S. House of Representatives right now is another Republican. And the thing that we do need is more Democrats. Seventeen more Democrats, to be exact... Let's take back the House."



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Blog Archive

  • ▼  2013 (500)
    • ►  July (35)
    • ►  June (150)
    • ▼  May (153)
      • Sunday Classics preview: Colin Davis's surprising ...
      • Israeli pols take the first step toward making the...
      • Joe Manchin-- Best Friend Of King Coal
      • DSCC Getting Its Dream Candidate, Joe Miller, Agai...
      • New Dem Patrick Murphy (FL) Is Asking For A Favor....
      • Back to work
      • A Government Of The Rich, By The Rich And, More Th...
      • Keystone XL Pipeline-- The Coming Catastrophe, Pol...
      • Rob Ford, The Canadian Chris Christie
      • What's Wrong With The Republican Party?
      • "Ballpark bipartisanship," Al Kamen calls it
      • Bronze Age Morals-- Roberto De Mattei Teaches Hatr...
      • Cheri Bustos Wants Help To Fend Off Teabagger Bobb...
      • How The DCCC Is Making Hay Of The GOP Vote To Forc...
      • Obama And Christie Cozy Up To Each Other Again In ...
      • Inequality Grows In Sweden-- And So Do Social Tens...
      • Saluting the president's "star litigatrix"
      • It Wouldn't Be Hard For The NRCC To Defeat A Pack ...
      • Blue America Welcomes Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)
      • Lindsey Graham's Homosexuality And... Syria
      • The Woolwich murderer, says Ian Welsh, is "a bad m...
      • Joe Crowley-- Making The Republican Party Look Les...
      • Grassroots Voters Need To Defeat The Wall Street-o...
      • Is Adam Schiff Changing His Tune-- Or Just Playing...
      • What Happens When Voters Just Eliminate The Nihili...
      • Economist Umair Haque Uses Twitter To Dissect Cons...
      • Just hope there's still room to book the Diaper Ma...
      • Buck McKeon's Family Opens A Defense Industry Lobb...
      • Sunday Classics: The young Colin Davis gets off to...
      • Mainstream Republican Conservatives Battle Tea Par...
      • TV Watch: A weary nation wonders, "Is 'Mr. Selfrid...
      • Sean Patrick Maloney: Pond Scum Of The Week
      • Someone Needs To Tell Obama There's A Great Democr...
      • Can The Democrats Retake The House Next Year?
      • Kicking Rich Freeloaders Off Agricultural Welfare
      • Sunday Classics preview: Memorable Mozart from the...
      • Re. the Boy Scouts' "compromise": Compromise with ...
      • Tesla-- I wonder What Libertarians Think Of The Au...
      • Republicans In Congress Hike The Cost Of Education...
      • GMO: No One Is Perfect-- Not Even Elizabeth Warren
      • Remember When Rahm Emanuel Was The Worst Thing Abo...
      • Who wouldn't pony up $12 for a beer imported all t...
      • Self-Loathing Closet Case Lindsey Graham Shafts Th...
      • Too Big To Fail Again
      • Does Your Congressman Want To Embroil The U.S. In ...
      • Tobacco Industry Lobbyists And P.R. Hacks Reinvent...
      • The stock-market "boom" may not be a bubble, but t...
      • Which Georgia Extremist Will Out-Extreme All The O...
      • Chris Christie Still Counting On New Jersey Voters...
      • The Ugly Republican Politics Behind Aid For Oklaho...
      • Stolen Valor-- How Will Mark Kirk Vote?
      • Don't cooks who acknowledge their kitchen bloopers...
      • Not Every Vulnerable Candidate Folds And Joins The...
      • Election Day In L.A.: Eric Garcetti Is The Better ...
      • Keystone XL Pipeline Gets It's Big House Vote Tomo...
      • Is America The Healthiest Country? Not By A Long Shot
      • Reliving the fight to stop the Stop Online Piracy ...
      • The New Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Train...
      • Daylin Leach Has Been An Asset For Pennsylvania An...
      • Virginia Has A Sociopath Pushing Its Reactionary A...
      • Who Does Wall Street Own In Congress?
      • What are Boehner and his people doing about this "...
      • Midnight Train To Georgia-- Tbilisi Not Safe For T...
      • Sunday Classics: "Good night, thou false world!" -...
      • Have New Jersey Democrats Finally Found The Right ...
      • Republicans Move To Repay Wall Street For All Thos...
      • TV Watch: "Maron" revisited, following an absolute...
      • How Buck McKeon's Mormonism Played Right Into The ...
      • Republicans Led By John Kline (R-MN) Voted Down El...
      • Arizona Republican Jim Kolbe Is Getting Gay-Marrie...
      • Sunday Classics (double) preview: Enter the bird-c...
      • Justice Stevens's grandkids may not care, but he h...
      • Tea Party Crackpots Shouldn't Be Investigated?
      • Corrupt House Agriculture Committee Slashes Food S...
      • Boehnercare Passes The House
      • Paul Ryan Gets A Letter From A Constituent
      • Rob Portman Has A Shovel And He Keeps Digging That...
      • This Post Is Only For Californians-- Unless You Al...
      • Water, Water Everywhere-- And An Obstructionist Se...
      • Mommy, How Did The Tea Party Start?
      • Fired, shmired -- isn't it time we started having ...
      • What Makes A Democrat Turn Bad When He Gets To Con...
      • New Dems Vs Actual Democrats-- Chained CPI
      • Jay Stamper on Lindsey Graham: "There Is Something...
      • Why Is Buck McKeon Gung-ho To Allow Insurance Comp...
      • A public discussion nudged by Joe Sestak would lik...
      • Is Sabotage A Crime Punishable By Something or Other?
      • McConnell Upset By Working Class Guy In The Senato...
      • What If The DCCC Had A Special Category Of Targets...
      • Sometimes cartoonists tackle seemingly trivial sub...
      • The DCCC's Plague Of New Dem Self-Funders... And W...
      • Will Hanabusa's Political Cowardice on LGBT Issues...
      • If The Oceans Rise 40 Meters, Will Your House Be U...
      • The DCCC's Tighty Whities
      • How Would You Feel If Someone Wrote, "We Need Fewe...
      • Whether in Israel or America, is it time to fight ...
      • More On Vetting Candidates
      • Sunday Classics: What comes after Mozart's and Bee...
      • When Former Guatemala President Efrain RĂ­os Montt ...
      • Remember How Much We Hated Bush's Job-Destroying "...
    • ►  April (148)
    • ►  March (14)
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Ashish Chaturvedi
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